Did Trump just give DeSantis a boost?
Donald Trump just reminded Republican voters — even many who voted for him twice before — why they might want someone else to top the party’s ticket in 2024. Moreover, he may have singlehandedly breathed new life into Ron DeSantis’s struggling campaign.
The former president has picked a fight with Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s popular GOP governor, apparently because she dared get too cozy with DeSantis, Trump’s nearest rival for the 2024 nomination. Reynolds has appeared at several DeSantis events in her state and recently teamed up with his wife in rolling out Mamas for DeSantis, a grassroots effort to bolster the Florida governor’s standing with women.
Reynolds has said she will remain neutral in the Iowa GOP race; she has offered to attend events hosted by front-runner Donald Trump and has appeared with candidate Nikki Haley. Apparently, this is not good enough for Trump, however, who takes credit for her becoming governor because he appointed her predecessor ambassador to China, opening the seat, and also campaigned for her.
This is classic Trumpian behavior — self-centered and imprudent. The Iowa caucuses will not determine who wins the nomination (in 2016 Trump came in second, behind Ted Cruz), but lashing out at the GOP leader in the state, who won reelection by 20 points last year and enjoys high approval ratings, seems foolish.
And, typical. During his four years in office and in the time since, the former president has alienated scores of former allies. While in the Oval Office he churned through staff at historic rates, with one blowup after another sending talented colleagues packing.
Trump’s most ardent followers excuse him for his disgraceful behavior on Jan. 6, because many are convinced that he actually won the 2020 election, and they ignore his mounting legal problems as politically motivated.
But they cannot escape this: Trump is disliked by a majority of Americans and is a lightning rod for the left; his “unfavorables,” according to 538 averages, are worse than those of Kamala Harris. His presence on a ballot or connection with a candidate energizes Democrat turnout. That makes it very unlikely he could win a national election.
Trump, along with a fervent pro-choice movement, helped torpedo what should have been a barn-burner midterm win for the GOP last year. He backed candidates largely on their obeisance to his claims of election fraud and then turned on them when they lost. It was, as ever, all about him.
Today, Republicans are desperate to boot Joe Biden (or whomever Democrats may pick to replace him) from the White House. They want Trump’s policies without the drama. They want, above all else, someone who can win — and DeSantis is the obvious choice. He has a stellar resume: middle-class roots, Navy service, Yale undergrad, Harvard Law, a stint in Congress. And he has a beautiful, engaging and whip-smart wife and a photogenic family.
Moreover, DeSantis’s term as Florida’s governor has been wildly successful; his economic achievements and performance during COVID should easily translate into a convincing campaign pitch.
It has not.
Polling shows the governor peaked in late January, when Trump had a 13-point lead with 47 percent of the would-be voters and the Florida governor trailed with 34 percent. It was the closest he has come; today Trump has an even more commanding lead, of 39 points.
How did that happen?
First, DeSantis has been targeted by both Democrats and Donald Trump for months. Like many Republicans, Democrats saw him as the most likely successor to Trump, but with less baggage. So, they went on attack.
As did Trump. DeSantis allowed the former president to get the jump on negative advertising, allowing his rival to define him just as he was becoming known to voters. In March, Trump’s PAC began running devastating ads accusing DeSantis of having voted to cut Social Security and Medicare when he was in Congress and ominously asking, “Think you know Ron DeSantis?”
DeSantis answered by running ads in early primary states that reminded voters of Trump’s legal problems, telling The Donald he should “Fight Democrats, not Republicans”.
This was a misjudgment. The numerous lawsuits against Donald Trump are viewed by many Republicans (and independents) as politically motivated. Democrats have accused Trump of so many misdeeds since he was first elected that it is hard to keep the charges straight. But Republicans are sure that Russiagate was a complete hoax; they’re pretty sure that Alvin Bragg’s charges of falsifying business records is a stretch; and that his conviction on sexually assaulting E. Jean Carroll more than 20 years earlier would likely not have happened if the case had been heard anywhere but New York.
DeSantis also goofed by announcing his campaign via an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk, which experienced technical glitches, adding to Trump’s narrative that the governor was not “ready” to be president. Instead of the public focusing on DeSantis’ strong argument for his candidacy, the next-day conversation was all about the underwhelming launch.
In recent months, DeSantis has spent too much time on “woke” issues like gender and race, as opposed to highlighting the economic policies that have helped Florida attract so many new residents and that he would take national as president.
And, he has faced criticism for not being a great retail politician — he’s not a natural backslapper.
DeSantis needs a strong performance in Iowa and New Hampshire to undermine Trump’s seemingly invincible lead. His polling in the Buckeye State is better than it is nationally; he trails Trump by 23 points. In New Hampshire, it’s 28 points.
The contest is not over. The Reynolds dispute could sway Iowans, giving Florida’s governor a boost, the debates could have an impact, and DeSantis’ campaign may become more sophisticated.
Most important: voters may decide they want to pick a winner. Putting nostalgia aside, they may conclude that is not Donald Trump.
